Municipal Calamonteño · Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Calamonte vs Montijo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Calamonte and 1.30 for Montijo, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Montijo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.6% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Calamonte home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Montijo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 29% / 28% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Calamonte and 1.30 for Montijo, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–28.5%
Recent form
Calamonte
- 2026-05-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llerenense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Badajoz · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Montijo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Moralo · 1-1 (D)
Montijo
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 2-3 Montijo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2025-12-14T11:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 2-0 Montijo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2025-03-30T11:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 2-1 Montijo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2024-11-17T11:30:00.000Z · Calamonte 3-1 Montijo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2022-08-07T18:30:00.000Z · Calamonte 0-1 Montijo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-02-14T11:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 0-1 Montijo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2020-11-22T11:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 0-0 Montijo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2020-01-12T11:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 0-1 Montijo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
- 2019-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · Calamonte 2-1 Montijo (Tercera División RFEF - Group 14)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Llerenense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Castuera | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Villanovense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Gévora | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Jerez | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Montijo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Santa Amalia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Cabeza Buey | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Villafranca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Jaraíz | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Quintana | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.