· Analysis updated 15:41 UTC
Calasancio vs Varea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Calasancio and 1.42 for Varea, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Varea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Varea win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Varea away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Varea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 21% / 27% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Calasancio and 1.42 for Varea, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.7%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–211.1%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–28.7%
Recent form
Calasancio
Varea
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Agoncillo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oyonesa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Calzada · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pradejón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcial · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Berceo | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | La Calzada | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Varea | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Calahorra | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | San Marcial | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 9 | Anguiano | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Oyonesa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 11 | Agoncillo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | Comillas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Yagüe | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Cenicero | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Vianés | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 17 | River Ebro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Casalarreina | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Varea win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.