· Analysis updated 09:48 UTC
Calasanz de Soria vs Unionistas II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Calasanz de Soria and 1.50 for Unionistas II, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Unionistas II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Unionistas II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unionistas II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 32% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Calasanz de Soria and 1.50 for Unionistas II, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.6%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Calasanz de Soria
Unionistas II
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bembibre · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Turégano · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Calasanz de Soria · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.