· Analysis updated 20:27 UTC
Calcio Avola vs Digiesse PraiaTortora Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Calcio Avola and 1.48 for Digiesse PraiaTortora, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Digiesse PraiaTortora the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Digiesse PraiaTortora away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Digiesse PraiaTortora to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Calcio Avola and 1.48 for Digiesse PraiaTortora, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
Calcio Avola
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CastrumFavara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nissa · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Reggina · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trapani 1905 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Igea Virtus · 2-4 (L)
Digiesse PraiaTortora
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Vigor Lamezia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Milazzo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Modica · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vibonese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gela · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sambiase | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 2 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Vibonese | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Licata | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 17 |
| 5 | Calcio Avola | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Milazzo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 7 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | AC Palermo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Gela | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 | Nissa | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 14 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Modica | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.