· Analysis updated 14:14 UTC
Calcio Avola vs Trapani 1905 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Calcio Avola and 0.77 for Trapani 1905, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Calcio Avola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Calcio Avola win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trapani 1905 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Calcio Avola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 24% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.64 goals for Calcio Avola and 0.77 for Trapani 1905, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.9%
Recent form
Calcio Avola
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CastrumFavara · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nissa · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Reggina · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trapani 1905 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Igea Virtus · 2-4 (L)
Trapani 1905
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Reggina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ragusa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Igea Virtus · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nissa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Calcio Avola · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reggina | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 2 | Sambiase | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Licata | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17 |
| 4 | Calcio Avola | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vibonese | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | Igea Virtus | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milazzo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Digiesse PraiaTortora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Nissa | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | AC Palermo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Vigor Lamezia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | Siracusa | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | CastrumFavara | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Modica | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Gela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Trapani 1905 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Ragusa | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Enna | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Calcio Avola win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.