Campo da Mata · Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Caldas vs Lusitano Évora 1911 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Caldas and 0.95 for Lusitano Évora 1911, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Caldas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caldas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lusitano Évora 1911 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–010.6%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
Caldas
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vitória de Sernache · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs União Santarém · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sintrense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Louletano · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Lusitano Évora 1911 · 0-0 (D)
Lusitano Évora 1911
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Covilha · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Louletano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mafra · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Caldas · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-16T16:30:00.000Z · Caldas 0-0 Lusitano Évora 1911 (Liga 3)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Caldas 1-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 (Liga 3)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Caldas 1-0 Lusitano Évora 1911 (Liga 3)
- 2026-01-17T15:00:00.000Z · Caldas 0-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 (Liga 3)
- 2025-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · Caldas 2-1 Lusitano Évora 1911 (Liga 3)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Leça | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Atlético CP | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Fafe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 6 | Varzim | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | União Santarém | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 7 | São João Ver | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Caldas | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Pacos Ferreira | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 8 | SC Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | Trofense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 9 | Lusitano Évora 1911 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 10 | Guimaraes B | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitória de Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.