Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini · Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Caldiero Terme vs Brusaporto Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.66 expected goals for Caldiero Terme and 1.05 for Brusaporto, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Caldiero Terme the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caldiero Terme win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caldiero Terme home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caldiero Terme to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.66 goals for Caldiero Terme and 1.05 for Brusaporto, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.1%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Caldiero Terme
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varesina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vogherese · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Valle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sondrio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brusaporto · 1-2 (L)
Brusaporto
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Chievo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Piacenza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | Villa Valle | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Caldiero Terme | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Milan II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Virtus Verona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Calepina | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Pavonese | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 11 | Pro Palazzolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Scanzorosciate | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 15 | Rovato Vertovese | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Club Milano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caldiero Terme win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.