Mario Gavagnin-Sinibaldo Nocini · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Caldiero Terme vs Villa Valle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Caldiero Terme and 1.12 for Villa Valle, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Caldiero Terme the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caldiero Terme home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villa Valle away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caldiero Terme to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Caldiero Terme and 1.12 for Villa Valle, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–111.1%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Caldiero Terme
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varesina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vogherese · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Valle · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sondrio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Brusaporto · 1-2 (L)
Villa Valle
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Calepina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tritium · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorenzuola · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Milan II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nibbiano & Valtidone | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 2 | Chievo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 4 | Caldiero Terme | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Piacenza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Villa Valle | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Milan II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Virtus Verona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Calepina | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Scanzorosciate | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Pavonese | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 10 |
| 12 | Pro Palazzolo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Brusaporto | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Rovato Vertovese | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Club Milano | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorenzuola | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Tritium | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.