· Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Caledonian Braves vs Cumnock Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Caledonian Braves and 1.75 for Cumnock Juniors, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Caledonian Braves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caledonian Braves home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cumnock Juniors away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caledonian Braves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 21% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Caledonian Braves and 1.75 for Cumnock Juniors, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Caledonian Braves
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fraserburgh · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newton Stewart · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Clydebank · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Auchinleck Talbot · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilwinning Rangers · 5-2 (W)
Cumnock Juniors
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Auchinleck Talbot · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Auchinleck Talbot · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Troon FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Beith · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalbeattie Star · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Football League - Lowland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilwinning Rangers | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Tranent Juniors | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Pollok | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Largs Thistle | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 5 | Auchinleck Talbot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 22 |
| 6 | Linlithgow Rose | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 22 |
| 7 | Brechin | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 8 | Broxburn Athletic | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 22 |
| 10 | Clydebank | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 20 |
| 11 | Caledonian Braves | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 12 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 18 |
| 13 | Johnstone Burgh | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 18 |
| 14 | Celtic II | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 15 | Cumnock Juniors | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 16 | Lochee United | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 17 | Civil Service Strollers | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 18 | Bo'ness United | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | Troon FC | 11 | 4 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 12 |
| 20 | Cumbernauld Colts | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | East Stirlingshire | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 22 | Gretna 2008 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 | Cowdenbeath | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 24 | Musselburgh Athletic | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 9 |
| 25 | Beith | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -14 | 9 |
| 26 | Albion Rovers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 27 | Renfrew | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 28 | Berwick Rangers | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
| 29 | Dunipace | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 4 |
| 30 | Newton Stewart | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 4 |
| 31 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 3 |
| 32 | Stirling University | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | -16 | 3 |
| 33 | Dalbeattie Star | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.