· Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Caledonian Braves vs Fraserburgh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Caledonian Braves and 1.53 for Fraserburgh, a combined total of 4.04. That distribution gives Caledonian Braves the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caledonian Braves win
59.0% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caledonian Braves home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caledonian Braves to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Caledonian Braves and 1.53 for Fraserburgh, a combined 4.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 77% and both teams to score at 72%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.1%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–05.6%
Recent form
Caledonian Braves
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fraserburgh · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newton Stewart · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Clydebank · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Auchinleck Talbot · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilwinning Rangers · 5-2 (W)
Fraserburgh
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brora Rangers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundee II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Banks O' Dee · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Caledonian Braves · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caledonian Braves win, at 59.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.