· Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
Calouros do Ar vs Palmacia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for Calouros do Ar and 1.18 for Palmacia, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Calouros do Ar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Calouros do Ar win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Calouros do Ar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.91 goals for Calouros do Ar and 1.18 for Palmacia, a combined 3.08 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 59%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 54% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Calouros do Ar
Palmacia
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacatuba · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Esporte Limoeiro · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tianguá · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Vila Real · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Calouros do Ar win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.