· Analysis updated 15:23 UTC
Calouros do Ar vs Vila Real Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.68 expected goals for Calouros do Ar and 1.25 for Vila Real, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Vila Real the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vila Real win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
0.68 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Vila Real away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vila Real to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 20% / 30% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.68 goals for Calouros do Ar and 1.25 for Vila Real, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.2%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–211.4%
- 1–09.8%
Recent form
Calouros do Ar
Vila Real
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Pacatuba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacatuba · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tianguá · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Acopiara · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Calouros do Ar · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T18:30:00.000Z · Calouros do Ar 1-2 Vila Real (Cearense - 3)
Cearense - 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Real | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 |
| 2 | Acopiara | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Esporte Limoeiro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Pacatuba | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Calouros do Ar | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 6 | Tianguá | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Palmacia | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vila Real win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.