· Analysis updated 04:14 UTC
Cambridge City vs Alvechurch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Cambridge City and 1.75 for Alvechurch, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Cambridge City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cambridge City win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cambridge City home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Alvechurch away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cambridge City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 19% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Cambridge City and 1.75 for Alvechurch, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–16.2%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Cambridge City
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brantham Athletic · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Downham Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Redbridge · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Takeley · 2-1 (W)
Alvechurch
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stratford Town · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Spalding United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Spalding United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Halesowen Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bury Town · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cambridge City win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.