· Analysis updated 05:24 UTC
Cambridge City vs Cambridge United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Cambridge City and 1.37 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Cambridge City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cambridge City win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cambridge City home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambridge United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cambridge City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Cambridge City and 1.37 for Cambridge United, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Cambridge City
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brantham Athletic · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Downham Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Redbridge · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Takeley · 2-1 (W)
Cambridge United
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wycombe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackpool · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Northampton · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T12:00:00.000Z · Cambridge City 1-3 Cambridge United (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-07-05T12:00:00.000Z · Cambridge City 1-3 Cambridge United (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cambridge City win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.