Abbey Stadium · Referee B. Toner · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Cambridge United vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.13 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Cambridge United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cambridge United win
63.2% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cambridge United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Wimbledon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cambridge United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 19% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Cambridge United and 1.13 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–07.6%
- 3–17.4%
Recent form
Cambridge United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Wimbledon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 2-2 (D)
AFC Wimbledon
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Milton Keynes Dons · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Doncaster · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bromley · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bradford | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 20 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Plymouth | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 18 |
| 7 | Reading | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 |
| 8 | Oxford United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 9 | Leyton Orient | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Wycombe | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 13 | Mansfield Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Leicester | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 12 |
| 16 | Luton | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 17 | Doncaster | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Milton Keynes Dons | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 19 | Peterborough | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 20 | Blackpool | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Barnsley | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 22 | Bromley | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 23 | Notts County | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 24 | Wigan | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cambridge United win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.