Abbey Stadium · Referee P. Howard · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Cambridge United vs Millwall Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.50 for Millwall, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Cambridge United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cambridge United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Millwall away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cambridge United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 24% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Cambridge United and 1.50 for Millwall, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
Cambridge United
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Wimbledon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oxford United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 2-2 (D)
Millwall
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Newcastle · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · Cambridge United 0-1 Millwall (League Cup)
- 2022-08-02T18:45:00.000Z · Cambridge United 1-0 Millwall (League Cup)
- 2021-08-24T18:45:00.000Z · Cambridge United 1-3 Millwall (League Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.