Rowley Park Stadium · Analysis updated 18:38 UTC
Cambridge United W vs Real Bedford W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Cambridge United W and 1.36 for Real Bedford W, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Cambridge United W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cambridge United W win
54.0% probability
Expected goals
2.08 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cambridge United W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cambridge United W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Cambridge United W and 1.36 for Real Bedford W, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 65%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–06.7%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Cambridge United W
- 2025-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs West Bromwich Albion W · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs University of Nottingham W · 2-1 (W)
- 2024-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Norwich City W · 0-1 (L)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Bedford W · 3-1 (W)
- 2023-11-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Milton Keynes Dons W · 1-2 (L)
Real Bedford W
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough United W · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge United W · 1-3 (L)
- 2023-11-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Billericay Town W · 0-5 (L)
- 2023-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage W · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Women's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cambridge United W win, at 54.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.