Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.78 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives AZ Alkmaar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

AZ Alkmaar win

67.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.33 – 2.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cambuur home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AZ Alkmaar away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Cambuur win16%

Draw16%

AZ Alkmaar win68%

Double chance 1X

32%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–28.5%
1–37.8%
0–26.4%
1–16.1%
0–35.9%

Recent form

Cambuur

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-4 (L)

AZ Alkmaar

2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Telstar · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Heerenveen · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-29T16:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2023-02-25T19:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 1-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2022-08-28T14:45:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2022-01-22T19:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-0 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2021-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · Cambuur 1-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2017-03-02T19:45:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-0 AZ Alkmaar (KNVB Beker)
2016-01-27T17:30:00.000Z · Cambuur 1-3 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2015-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · Cambuur 1-1 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2015-03-21T19:45:00.000Z · Cambuur 1-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2014-11-29T19:45:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-2 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
2014-03-30T13:30:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-0 AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)

Eredivisie table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	6	1	1	16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	10	19
4	Twente	8	5	2	1	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	12	15
6	Groningen	8	4	2	2	6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	-1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	2	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Cambuur	8	2	2	4	-8	8
13	Utrecht	8	2	2	4	-11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	-7	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	-15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	-10	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	-16	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AZ Alkmaar win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.