Kooi Stadion · Referee Ingmar Oostrom, Netherlands · Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Cambuur and 2.38 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives NEC Nijmegen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NEC Nijmegen win
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cambuur home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
NEC Nijmegen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–17.9%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–37.5%
- 0–16.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.0%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.90 | 49.3% | 51.6% | 1.94 | +2.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.15 | 81.0% | 81.8% | 1.22 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Home | 5.25 | 17.8% | 18.3% | 5.46 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.55 | 36.5% | 37.0% | 2.70 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 3.10 | 30.3% | 30.4% | 3.29 | +0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.45 | 63.8% | 63.9% | 1.56 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.48 | 63.1% | 63.1% | 1.58 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.35 | 69.7% | 69.6% | 1.44 | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.55 | 36.3% | 36.1% | 2.77 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.90 | 19.1% | 18.7% | 5.35 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.13 | 82.4% | 81.4% | 1.23 | -1.0 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.85 | 50.7% | 48.4% | 2.07 | -2.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cambuur
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-4 (L)
NEC Nijmegen
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:45:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventus · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambuur · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-02-27T19:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 1-2 NEC Nijmegen (KNVB Beker)
- 2023-02-11T17:45:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-11-04T19:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-1 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2022-04-03T14:45:00.000Z · Cambuur 1-2 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2021-12-16T17:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 1-2 NEC Nijmegen (KNVB Beker)
- 2021-11-26T19:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 3-2 NEC Nijmegen (Eredivisie)
- 2021-01-17T11:15:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2020-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 2-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2020-01-31T19:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 2-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eerste Divisie)
- 2019-11-01T19:00:00.000Z · Cambuur 0-0 NEC Nijmegen (Eerste Divisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NEC Nijmegen win, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.