· Analysis updated 13:50 UTC
Cambuur vs Utrecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.65 for Utrecht, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Cambuur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cambuur home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Utrecht away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cambuur to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 22% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Cambuur and 1.65 for Utrecht, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.6%
Recent form
Cambuur
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-4 (L)
Utrecht
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:15:00.000Z · H vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.