Stade Roumde Adjia · Referee A. Kasim · Analysis updated 15:22 UTC
Cameroon vs Comoros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Cameroon and 0.45 for Comoros, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Cameroon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cameroon win
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cameroon home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Comoros away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cameroon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 22% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Cameroon and 0.45 for Comoros, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.8%
- 2–016.8%
- 0–011.6%
- 3–09.5%
- 1–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.35 (model 70.4% vs market 67.1%, edge +3.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.35 | 67.1% | 70.4% | 1.42 | +3.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.33 | 67.9% | 68.3% | 1.46 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 90.5% | 90.7% | 1.10 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.00 | 31.7% | 31.7% | 3.15 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.6% | 22.4% | 4.46 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 9.50 | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.75 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.9% | 77.6% | 1.29 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.75 | 32.9% | 29.6% | 3.38 | -3.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cameroon
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivory Coast · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Comoros · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-31T06:00:00.000Z · A vs China · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T09:10:00.000Z · A vs Australia · 0-1 (L)
Comoros
- 2026-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Namibia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Cameroon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-09T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Equatorial Guinea · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U23 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kazakhstan · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · Cameroon 3-1 Comoros (Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification)
- 2022-01-24T19:00:00.000Z · Cameroon 2-1 Comoros (Africa Cup of Nations)
- 2019-03-23T15:00:00.000Z · Cameroon 3-0 Comoros (Africa Cup of Nations)
- 2018-09-08T12:00:00.000Z · Cameroon 1-1 Comoros (Africa Cup of Nations)
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Gabon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Niger | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Egypt | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 2 | Angola | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | South Sudan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | Ivory Coast | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Gambia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Somalia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Ghana | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | South Africa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Eritrea | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 4 | Kenya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Congo DR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Zimbabwe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Equatorial Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Sierra Leone | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Benin | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Central African Republic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Cameroon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Comoros | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 3 | Namibia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Congo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Uganda | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Botswana | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Libya | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Algeria | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Zambia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Togo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Burundi | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 1 | Senegal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Mozambique | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Sudan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 1 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Mali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Cape Verde Islands | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Liberia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 1 | Guinea-Bissau | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Madagascar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cameroon win, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.