Steve Woodcock Sports Centre · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Campbelltown City vs Para Hills Knights Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Campbelltown City and 1.20 for Para Hills Knights, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives Campbelltown City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Campbelltown City win
73.6% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Campbelltown City home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Para Hills Knights away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Campbelltown City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 14% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Campbelltown City and 1.20 for Para Hills Knights, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 3–18.1%
- 2–06.7%
- 3–06.7%
- 4–16.1%
Recent form
Campbelltown City
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturt Lions · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Beograd · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Croydon Kings · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-17T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Comets · 1-0 (W)
Para Hills Knights
- 2026-08-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide Comets · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-08T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Adelaide United II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:30:00.000Z · A vs West Adelaide · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T05:30:00.000Z · H vs Playford City Patriots · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs West Torrens Birkalla · 0-11 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
South Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adelaide City | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | West Torrens Birkalla | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 45 |
| 3 | MetroStars | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 44 |
| 4 | Playford City Patriots | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | FK Beograd | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 6 | Croydon Kings | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Adelaide United II | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 29 |
| 8 | Campbelltown City | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -1 | 29 |
| 9 | Sturt Lions | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -1 | 27 |
| 10 | West Adelaide | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 11 | Adelaide Comets | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | Para Hills Knights | 22 | 0 | 2 | 20 | -86 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Campbelltown City win, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.