· Analysis updated 07:12 UTC
Campo Grande vs Duque de Caxias Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Campo Grande and 1.33 for Duque de Caxias, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Duque de Caxias the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.8% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Campo Grande home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Duque de Caxias away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Duque de Caxias to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 28% / 28% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Campo Grande and 1.33 for Duque de Caxias, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–09.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Campo Grande
- 2026-10-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Niteroiense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São Cristóvão RJ · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Duque de Caxias · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nova Cidade · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrópolis · 0-0 (D)
Duque de Caxias
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Macaé · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Artsul · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Campo Grande · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Audax Rio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · Campo Grande 0-3 Duque de Caxias (Carioca - 2)
- 2025-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · Campo Grande 0-0 Duque de Caxias (Carioca - 2)
- 2022-10-26T18:00:00.000Z · Campo Grande 0-1 Duque de Caxias (Carioca - 2)
- 2021-11-13T18:00:00.000Z · Campo Grande 3-1 Duque de Caxias (Carioca - 2)
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duque de Caxias | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Niteroiense | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Artsul | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Macaé | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | São Cristóvão RJ | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.