Centro Sportivo Il Gabbiano · Analysis updated 17:11 UTC
Campodarsego vs Portogruaro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Campodarsego and 1.03 for Portogruaro, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Campodarsego the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Campodarsego win
67.2% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Campodarsego home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Portogruaro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Campodarsego to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Campodarsego and 1.03 for Portogruaro, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
Campodarsego
- 2026-10-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Clodiense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mestre · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Legnago Salus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs LME · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Triestina · 2-1 (W)
Portogruaro
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Clodiense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Legnago Salus · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Calvi Noale · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brian Lignano · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bassano Virtus · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luparense | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | Cjarlins Muzane | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Clodiense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 4 | Sandona | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Legnago Salus | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Campodarsego | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Bassano Virtus | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | LME | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Mestre | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Este | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Conegliano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Altavilla | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Triestina | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Virtus Bolzano | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -15 | 9 |
| 15 | Calvi Noale | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 | FC Obermais | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 17 | Schio | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 18 | Brian Lignano | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Campodarsego win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.