Estadio Enrique Roca · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Canada U20 W vs Japan U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Canada U20 W and 1.30 for Japan U20 W, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives Canada U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Canada U20 W win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canada U20 W home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Japan U20 W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canada U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Canada U20 W and 1.30 for Japan U20 W, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Canada U20 W
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs England U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U20 W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs England U20 W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-16T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica U20 W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-13T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica U20 W · 3-0 (W)
Japan U20 W
- 2026-09-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Italy U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand U20 W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-06-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs England U20 W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canada U20 W win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.