· Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Canada W vs Colombia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Canada W and 1.30 for Colombia W, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Canada W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Canada W win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canada W home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Colombia W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canada W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Canada W and 1.30 for Colombia W, a combined 2.97 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
Canada W
- 2026-06-10T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Brazil W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentina W · 0-0 (D)
Colombia W
- 2026-10-13T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Rico W · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canada W win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.