Saputo Stadium · Referee Erika Monserrat Gonzalez Nevarez · Analysis updated 01:51 UTC
Canada W vs Haiti W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Canada W and 0.73 for Haiti W, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Canada W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Canada W win
74.5% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canada W home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Haiti W away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canada W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Canada W and 0.73 for Haiti W, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.7%
- 1–010.5%
- 3–010.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.6%
Recent form
Canada W
- 2026-06-10T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Costa Rica W · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-19T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Brazil W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Zambia W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-03-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentina W · 0-0 (D)
Haiti W
- 2026-06-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Equatorial Guinea W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Dominican Republic W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-03-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Suriname W · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canada W win, at 74.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.