Canberra FC vs Queanbeyan City Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Canberra FC and 1.73 for Queanbeyan City, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Canberra FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Canberra FC win

53.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.43 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Canberra FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Queanbeyan City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Canberra FC win53%

Draw19%

Queanbeyan City win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–18.0%
2–26.9%
1–16.6%
3–16.5%
1–25.7%

Recent form

Canberra FC

2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Belconnen United · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-15T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 5-4 (W)

Queanbeyan City

2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggeranong United · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-16T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Juventus · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuggeranong United · 4-2 (W)
2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Brindabella · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T06:00:00.000Z · Canberra FC 1-0 Queanbeyan City (Capital Territory NPL)
2026-06-10T09:30:00.000Z · Canberra FC 4-2 Queanbeyan City (Capital Territory NPL)
2026-03-31T08:30:00.000Z · Canberra FC 0-3 Queanbeyan City (Capital Territory NPL)
2025-08-10T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra FC 3-1 Queanbeyan City (Capital Territory NPL)
2025-06-21T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra FC 2-0 Queanbeyan City (Capital Territory NPL)
2025-04-26T07:30:00.000Z · Canberra FC 5-0 Queanbeyan City (Capital Territory NPL)

Capital Territory NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Canberra FC	20	17	1	2	40	52
2	Monaro Panthers	20	15	1	4	45	46
3	Cooma Tigers FC	20	14	2	4	35	44
4	Tuggeranong United	20	14	0	6	10	42
5	Queanbeyan City	20	12	2	6	14	38
6	Canberra Juventus	20	11	0	9	0	33
7	Canberra Olympic	20	7	2	11	-10	23
8	O'Connor Knights	20	6	2	12	-15	20
9	Belconnen United	20	2	3	15	-25	9
10	Brindabella	20	3	0	17	-51	9
11	Canberra White Eagles	20	2	1	17	-43	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Canberra FC win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.