Deakin Stadium · Analysis updated 17:02 UTC
Canberra FC vs South Melbourne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Canberra FC and 1.49 for South Melbourne, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives South Melbourne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
South Melbourne win
47.0% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canberra FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
South Melbourne away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates South Melbourne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 27% / 26% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Canberra FC and 1.49 for South Melbourne, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–111.6%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–08.3%
Recent form
Canberra FC
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Belconnen United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 5-4 (W)
South Melbourne
- 2026-10-23T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutherland Sharks · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:35:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne Victory · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Oakleigh Cannons · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Australian Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Melbourne | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 1 | Oakleigh Cannons | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 1 | South Hobart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Sutherland Sharks | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Wests APIA | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Bayswater City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sydney United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Avondale | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | Marconi Stallions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 3 | Wollongong Wolves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 4 | Canberra FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Adelaide City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 4 | Sydney Olympic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Preston Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is South Melbourne win, at 47.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.