Deakin Stadium · Analysis updated 14:08 UTC
Canberra FC vs Sutherland Sharks Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for Canberra FC and 1.26 for Sutherland Sharks, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Canberra FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Canberra FC win
55.5% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canberra FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canberra FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for Canberra FC and 1.26 for Sutherland Sharks, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Canberra FC
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Belconnen United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 5-4 (W)
Sutherland Sharks
- 2026-09-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Manly United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs SD Raiders · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T06:00:00.000Z · H vs St George City FA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Marconi Stallions · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Sydney FC U23 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canberra FC win, at 55.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.