Deakin Stadium · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Canberra FC vs Tuggeranong United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.20 expected goals for Canberra FC and 1.46 for Tuggeranong United, a combined total of 4.66. That distribution gives Canberra FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Canberra FC win
71.5% probability
Expected goals
3.20 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canberra FC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tuggeranong United away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canberra FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 14% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.20 goals for Canberra FC and 1.46 for Tuggeranong United, a combined 4.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.1%
- 4–16.0%
- 3–25.5%
- 3–05.2%
Recent form
Canberra FC
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Belconnen United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:45:00.000Z · A vs Monaro Panthers · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T07:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Connor Knights · 5-4 (W)
Tuggeranong United
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra Juventus · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Brindabella · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Olympic · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canberra FC win, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.