Gungahlin Enclosed Oval · Analysis updated 14:41 UTC
Canberra Juventus vs Brindabella Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.13 expected goals for Canberra Juventus and 1.45 for Brindabella, a combined total of 4.58. That distribution gives Canberra Juventus the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Canberra Juventus win
70.6% probability
Expected goals
3.13 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canberra Juventus home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brindabella away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.6%
- 2–17.3%
- 4–15.9%
- 3–25.5%
- 2–25.3%
Recent form
Canberra Juventus
- 2026-08-29T06:10:00.000Z · A vs Cooma Tigers FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-22T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tuggeranong United · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Canberra White Eagles · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Canberra FC · 0-4 (L)
Brindabella
- 2026-08-22T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Olympic · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuggeranong United · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-28T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Juventus 2-0 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2026-05-13T09:30:00.000Z · Canberra Juventus 1-0 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2025-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Juventus 1-3 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
- 2025-07-19T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Juventus 0-3 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
- 2025-05-24T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Juventus 1-0 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
- 2024-08-03T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Juventus 0-2 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
- 2024-07-13T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Juventus 1-1 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
- 2024-04-20T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Juventus 1-3 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canberra Juventus win, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.