· Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Canberra Olympic vs Brindabella Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.82 expected goals for Canberra Olympic and 1.68 for Brindabella, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Canberra Olympic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Canberra Olympic win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
2.82 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canberra Olympic home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brindabella away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.4%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.2%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.3%
Recent form
Canberra Olympic
- 2026-08-22T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Brindabella · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-08-16T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Belconnen United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-01T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuggeranong United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T04:30:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 2-2 (D)
Brindabella
- 2026-08-22T04:30:00.000Z · A vs Canberra Olympic · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-08-15T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Cooma Tigers FC · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuggeranong United · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-08-01T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Queanbeyan City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-29T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Queanbeyan City · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T04:30:00.000Z · Canberra Olympic 5-4 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2026-05-30T06:00:00.000Z · Canberra Olympic 3-0 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL)
- 2025-07-12T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Olympic 0-2 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
- 2025-06-04T07:30:00.000Z · Canberra Olympic 3-1 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
- 2025-05-17T05:00:00.000Z · Canberra Olympic 2-1 Brindabella (Capital Territory NPL 2)
Capital Territory NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canberra FC | 20 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 40 | 52 |
| 2 | Monaro Panthers | 20 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 46 |
| 3 | Cooma Tigers FC | 20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 35 | 44 |
| 4 | Tuggeranong United | 20 | 14 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 5 | Queanbeyan City | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 38 |
| 6 | Canberra Juventus | 20 | 11 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 33 |
| 7 | Canberra Olympic | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 8 | O'Connor Knights | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | -15 | 20 |
| 9 | Belconnen United | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | -25 | 9 |
| 10 | Brindabella | 20 | 3 | 0 | 17 | -51 | 9 |
| 11 | Canberra White Eagles | 20 | 2 | 1 | 17 | -43 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Canberra Olympic win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.