· Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Cañoneros Marina vs Vaqueros Reynosa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cañoneros Marina and 2.61 for Vaqueros Reynosa, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Vaqueros Reynosa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vaqueros Reynosa win
73.1% probability
Expected goals
0.94 – 2.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cañoneros Marina home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vaqueros Reynosa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 11% / 16% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Cañoneros Marina and 2.61 for Vaqueros Reynosa, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 56%, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.8%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–38.5%
- 1–38.0%
- 0–17.5%
Recent form
Cañoneros Marina
- 2026-10-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Artesanos Metepec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guerreros del Pacifico · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Dragones de Oaxaca · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Refineros · 0-1 (L)
Vaqueros Reynosa
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Correcaminos UAT II · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Saltillo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Apodaca · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Fresnillo · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vaqueros Reynosa win, at 73.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.