Estadio Municipal Cantolagua · Referee Javier Sánchez · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Cantolagua vs Pamplona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Cantolagua and 1.38 for Pamplona, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Pamplona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pamplona win
54.7% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cantolagua home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pamplona away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pamplona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 18% / 28% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Cantolagua and 1.38 for Pamplona, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.2%
- 0–013.2%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.5%
Recent form
Cantolagua
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Valle Egüés · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Gazte Berriak · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Doneztebe FT · 0-6 (L)
Pamplona
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Doneztebe FT · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Beti Kozkor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Aoiz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-14T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 19 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Avance Ezcabarte | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | San Juan | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Subiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Aoiz | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Beti Onak | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Cirbonero | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Pamplona | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Txantrea | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Cortes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 16 | Huarte | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pamplona win, at 54.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.