· Analysis updated 07:51 UTC
Cantoria vs Marbelli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Cantoria and 1.35 for Marbelli, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Marbelli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Marbelli win
50.2% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Marbelli away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marbelli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 22% / 28% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Cantoria and 1.35 for Marbelli, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 40%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.0%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–011.9%
- 0–210.8%
- 1–09.3%
Recent form
Cantoria
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Granada II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Málaga II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico de Marbella · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Porcuna · 0-1 (L)
Marbelli
- 2026-10-04T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Malaga City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huétor Vega · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mancha Real · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Almería II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Arenas Armilla | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
| 4 | Motril | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Marbelli | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | UD San Pedro | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Málaga II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Granada II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Marbelli win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.