Canvey Island vs Brentwood Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Canvey Island and 1.76 for Brentwood Town, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Canvey Island the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.86 – 1.76

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Canvey Island home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brentwood Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Canvey Island win41%

Draw22%

Brentwood Town win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–18.8%
2–18.2%
1–27.7%
2–27.2%
3–15.1%

Recent form

Canvey Island

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge City · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newmarket · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newmarket · 1-1 (D)

Brentwood Town

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chatham Town · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Whyteleafe · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hashtag United · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Maldon & Tiptree · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · Canvey Island 3-4 Brentwood Town (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · Canvey Island 3-2 Brentwood Town (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
2025-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · Canvey Island 0-1 Brentwood Town (Non League Premier - Isthmian)
2022-01-29T15:00:00.000Z · Canvey Island 0-2 Brentwood Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian North)
2021-09-28T18:45:00.000Z · Canvey Island 4-2 Brentwood Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian North)
2020-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · Canvey Island 1-1 Brentwood Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian North)
2019-11-12T19:45:00.000Z · Canvey Island 3-2 Brentwood Town (Non League Div One - Isthmian North)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.