· Analysis updated 15:45 UTC
Canvey Island vs Chelmsford City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Canvey Island and 1.41 for Chelmsford City, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Chelmsford City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.1% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canvey Island home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelmsford City away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelmsford City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Canvey Island and 1.41 for Chelmsford City, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Canvey Island
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newmarket · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newmarket · 1-1 (D)
Chelmsford City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brackley Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hampton & Richmond · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dorking Wanderers · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.