· Analysis updated 17:47 UTC
Canvey Island vs Ebbsfleet United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Canvey Island and 1.79 for Ebbsfleet United, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Ebbsfleet United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ebbsfleet United win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canvey Island home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ebbsfleet United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ebbsfleet United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Canvey Island and 1.79 for Ebbsfleet United, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.3%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Canvey Island
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newmarket · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newmarket · 1-1 (D)
Ebbsfleet United
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Horsham · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston-super-Mare · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hampton & Richmond · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Folkestone Invicta · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-04T12:00:00.000Z · Canvey Island 0-0 Ebbsfleet United (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ebbsfleet United win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.