· Analysis updated 16:49 UTC
Canvey Island vs Needham Market Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Canvey Island and 1.79 for Needham Market, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Needham Market the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Canvey Island home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Needham Market away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Needham Market to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 34% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Canvey Island and 1.79 for Needham Market, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.2%
Recent form
Canvey Island
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Needham Market · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelmsford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambridge City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newmarket · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Newmarket · 1-1 (D)
Needham Market
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wingate & Finchley · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leamington · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Anstey Nomads · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.