Estadio Pedro Nascimento Alves · Analysis updated 20:57 UTC
CAP vs Democrata SL Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for CAP and 1.28 for Democrata SL, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Democrata SL the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CAP home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Democrata SL away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Democrata SL to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 29% / 28% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for CAP and 1.28 for Democrata SL, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.2%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–28.4%
Recent form
CAP
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Democrata SL · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Democrata SL · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Mamoré · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani MG · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Caldense · 2-1 (W)
Democrata SL
- 2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Villa Nova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-12T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Villa Nova · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mamoré · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Mamoré · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs CAP · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Mineiro - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uberaba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 2 | Valeriodoce | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | Democrata SL | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | BOA | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Aymorés | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Villa Nova | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | CAP | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Mamoré | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Guarani MG | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 10 | Coimbra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Caldense | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Ipatinga | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -27 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.