· Analysis updated 02:10 UTC
Cape Verde Islands vs Bermuda Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.37 expected goals for Cape Verde Islands and 0.99 for Bermuda, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Cape Verde Islands the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cape Verde Islands win
68.0% probability
Expected goals
2.37 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cape Verde Islands home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bermuda away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cape Verde Islands to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.37 goals for Cape Verde Islands and 0.99 for Bermuda, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 1–18.1%
- 3–07.7%
Recent form
Cape Verde Islands
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rwanda · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Mali · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-07-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Saudi Arabia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-21T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Uruguay · 2-2 (D)
Bermuda
- 2026-09-29T00:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Lucia · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadeloupe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cape Verde Islands · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo DR · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-19T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Trinidad and Tobago · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cape Verde Islands win, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.