· Analysis updated 22:05 UTC
Capivariano U20 vs Porto Football U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Capivariano U20 and 0.63 for Porto Football U20, a combined total of 2.13. That distribution gives Capivariano U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Capivariano U20 win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Capivariano U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Porto Football U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Capivariano U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 26% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Capivariano U20 and 0.63 for Porto Football U20, a combined 2.13 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.8%
- 2–013.4%
- 0–011.9%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–18.4%
Recent form
Capivariano U20
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo SP U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Água Santa U20 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Football U20 · 4-1 (W)
Porto Football U20
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 1-7 (L)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs XV de Jaú U20 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ituano U20 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mauá U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Flamengo SP U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - U20 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Capivariano U20 win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.