Capivariano U20 vs Referencia U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Capivariano U20 and 0.74 for Referencia U20, a combined total of 2.24. That distribution gives Capivariano U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Capivariano U20 win

55.3% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 0.74

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Capivariano U20 home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Capivariano U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 26% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Capivariano U20 and 0.74 for Referencia U20, a combined 2.24 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Match result (1X2)

Capivariano U20 win55%

Draw26%

Referencia U20 win19%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–016.0%
2–012.0%
1–111.8%
0–010.7%
2–18.9%

Recent form

Capivariano U20

2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Flamengo SP U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Água Santa U20 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gremio Prudente U20 · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-31T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Porto Football U20 · 4-1 (W)

Referencia U20

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Paulista - U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Juventus U20	1	1	0	0	3	3
2	Santos U20	1	1	0	0	3	3
3	Ferroviária U20	1	1	0	0	2	3
4	Portuguesa Santista U20	1	1	0	0	1	3
5	Portuguesa U20	1	1	0	0	1	3
6	Corinthians U20	1	1	0	0	1	3
7	União Suzano U20	1	1	0	0	1	3
8	Ponte Preta U20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Jabaquara U20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	São Bento U20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Mirassol U20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Itapirense U20	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	América-SP U20	1	0	0	1	-3	0
14	Sertãozinho U20	1	0	0	1	-3	0
1	Ibrachina U20	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	Oeste U20	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	Desportivo Brasil U20	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Bandeirante U20	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	São Paulo U20	1	1	0	0	1	3
6	São Caetano U20	2	1	0	1	0	3
7	XV de Piracicaba U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
8	Sporting Paulinense U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
9	EC São Bernardo U20	1	0	1	0	0	1
10	Botafogo SP U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Novorizontino U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	União São João U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Velo Clube U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Santo André U20	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Aguai U20	2	0	0	2	-6	0
1	Água Santa U20	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	RB Bragantino U20	2	2	0	0	3	6
3	Ituano U20	2	1	1	0	1	4
4	Capivariano U20	2	1	1	0	1	4
5	Guarani U20	1	1	0	0	4	3
6	Palmeiras U20	1	1	0	0	2	3
7	Flamengo SP U20	2	1	0	1	0	3
8	XV de Jaú U20	2	1	0	1	-3	3
9	Tanabi SP U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
10	Osasco Audax U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Mauá U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Gremio Prudente U20	2	0	1	1	-2	1
13	Porto Football U20	2	0	1	1	-4	1
14	Sfera U20	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Referencia U20	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Capivariano U20 win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.