· Analysis updated 14:49 UTC
Cappellen vs Hades Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Cappellen and 2.41 for Hades, a combined total of 3.89. That distribution gives Hades the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hades win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 2.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cappellen home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hades away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hades to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 23% / 19% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Cappellen and 2.41 for Hades, a combined 3.89 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–17.3%
- 1–37.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–25.9%
Recent form
Cappellen
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sint-Truiden II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Royal Antwerp II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Eendracht Termien · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wilrijk · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Rupel Boom · 1-2 (L)
Hades
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tongeren · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rotselaar · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Royal Antwerp II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tempo Overijse · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second Amateur Division - VFV B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tempo Overijse | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 18 |
| 2 | Hades | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | De Kempen | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Wilrijk | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Royal Antwerp II | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 6 | Diegem Sport | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 | Racing Mechelen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Eendracht Termien | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Wellen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Rotselaar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Rupel Boom | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Nijlen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 13 | Bocholt | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 5 |
| 14 | Tongeren | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Sint-Truiden II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Cappellen | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hades win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.