Carabanchel vs AD Parla Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Carabanchel and 0.73 for AD Parla, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Carabanchel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Carabanchel win

48.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Carabanchel home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
AD Parla away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carabanchel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Carabanchel and 0.73 for AD Parla, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Carabanchel win49%

Draw30%

AD Parla win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.3%
0–013.9%
1–112.6%
2–010.8%
0–110.1%

Recent form

Carabanchel

2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Villanueva Pardillo · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Pozuelo Alarcón · 3-2 (W)
2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Leganés II · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Trival Valderas · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrejón · 1-1 (D)

AD Parla

2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Torrejón · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Galapagar · 0-5 (L)
2026-04-26T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcorcón II · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcobendas Sport · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tres Cantos · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Las Rozas	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	Colonia Moscardó	6	3	3	0	9	12
3	Cala Pozuelo	6	4	0	2	2	12
4	Galapagar	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Trival Valderas	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Móstoles	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Fuenlabrada	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Unión Adarve	6	2	3	1	-1	9
9	Pozuelo Alarcón	6	2	3	1	-2	9
10	RC Alcobendas	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Leganés II	6	2	1	3	2	7
12	Torrejón	6	2	1	3	1	7
13	Parla Escuela	6	1	3	2	-1	6
14	Alcobendas Sport	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Real Aranjuez	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Rayo Vallecano II	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Villanueva Pardillo	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	SS Reyes II	6	1	0	5	-8	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Carabanchel win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.