Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado · Referee A. Velasquez · Analysis updated 08:15 UTC
Carabobo FC vs Zamora FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Carabobo FC and 0.62 for Zamora FC, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Carabobo FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Carabobo FC win
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Carabobo FC home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zamora FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Carabobo FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 21% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Carabobo FC and 0.62 for Zamora FC, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.6%
- 2–014.4%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–08.9%
Recent form
Carabobo FC
- 2026-09-19T20:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Guaira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Cabello · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 3-4 (L)
Zamora FC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Atletico Barinas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Carabobo FC win, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.