Estadio Olimpico de la UCV · Referee C. Parra · Analysis updated 03:59 UTC
Caracas FC vs Deportivo La Guaira Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Caracas FC and 1.48 for Deportivo La Guaira, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Deportivo La Guaira the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caracas FC home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo La Guaira to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 30% / 26% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Caracas FC and 1.48 for Deportivo La Guaira, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Caracas FC
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 4-1 (W)
Deportivo La Guaira
- 2026-10-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuguesa FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.