· Analysis updated 16:39 UTC
Caracas FC vs Yaracuyanos FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Caracas FC and 0.75 for Yaracuyanos FC, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Caracas FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caracas FC win
69.6% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caracas FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yaracuyanos FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.7%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.1%
- 1–18.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.1%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 53.4% vs market 47.3%, edge +6.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 53.4% | 1.87 | +6.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.20 | 29.7% | 30.4% | 3.29 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.30 | 69.2% | 69.6% | 1.44 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 81.3% | 81.3% | 1.23 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.80 | 18.8% | 18.7% | 5.35 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 7.50 | 12.0% | 11.7% | 8.55 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.07 | 88.9% | 88.3% | 1.13 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 46.6% | 2.15 | -6.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Caracas FC
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitanos FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
Yaracuyanos FC
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Zamora FC B · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Cabello II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-0 Yaracuyanos FC (Copa Venezuela)
- 2026-08-18T20:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 3-2 Yaracuyanos FC (Copa Venezuela)
- 2025-09-01T22:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 3-1 Yaracuyanos FC (Primera División)
- 2025-03-27T19:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 3-3 Yaracuyanos FC (Primera División)
- 2014-04-13T21:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-0 Yaracuyanos FC (Primera División)
- 2013-11-17T20:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-0 Yaracuyanos FC (Primera División)
- 2013-04-28T21:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-0 Yaracuyanos FC (Primera División)
- 2012-11-25T20:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 2-0 Yaracuyanos FC (Primera División)
- 2012-02-17T00:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 3-3 Yaracuyanos FC (Primera División)
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Urena SC | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Trujillanos FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Deportivo Lara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caracas FC win, at 69.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.