· Referee R. Soto · Analysis updated 20:10 UTC
Caracas FC vs Zamora FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Caracas FC and 1.10 for Zamora FC, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Caracas FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caracas FC home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Zamora FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Caracas FC
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Tachira FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Merida FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Aragua FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 4-1 (W)
Zamora FC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Club Atletico Barinas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Metropolitanos FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Trujillanos FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 4-1 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2026-04-20T21:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-1 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2025-09-20T23:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 2-0 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2025-04-13T22:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 0-3 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2024-11-09T21:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 3-1 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2024-11-02T23:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 1-2 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2024-08-28T00:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 2-1 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2024-03-09T22:00:00.000Z · Caracas FC 2-2 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2023-08-12T22:10:00.000Z · Caracas FC 4-0 Zamora FC (Primera División)
- 2023-04-02T23:30:00.000Z · Caracas FC 2-1 Zamora FC (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.